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Willie Mullins Eyes Melbourne Cup Success

Willie Mullins Eyes Melbourne Cup Success

The winning machine. Master trainer Willie Mullins seems destined to win a Melbourne Cup sooner rather than later.

You can perhaps argue that it is difficult to measure success across different disciplines in horse racing, yet it is not controversial to say that Willie Mullins is in the conversation for the best horse trainer in the world today. 

Certainly, in national hunt racing his dominance is unparalleled. The fact that he won the British Top Jumps Trainer award despite his focus being on his native Ireland is evidence of that.

We need only look at Mullins earnings in Ireland and the UK for the last 5 jumps seasons to confirm his pre-eminence:

Ireland Last 5 Jumps Seasons Earnings Total Eur 25,912,640

UK Last 5 Jumps Seasons Earnings Total GBP 7,655,385

As we know, Mullins does tip a toe in the water of flat racing from time to time as his stats will show:

Ireland Last 5 Flat Seasons Earnings Total Eur 900,440

UK Last 5 Flat Seasons Earnings Total GBP 914,119

He picked up yet another victory at Royal Ascot in June. Yet, of all the prizes outside his comfort zone that he covets, there is one that clearly looms above all others – the Melbourne Cup.

Mullins has been a fixture of the race for a couple of decades now, coming close with the likes of Max Dynamite (finished 2nd in 2015) and Wicklow Brave (3rd in 2017). Could he go one closer in 2024? 

Melbourne Cup winner Michelle Payne with Prince of Penzance by Chris Phutully

The Melbourne Cup can be curious for horse racing betting, and it’s a race that can make a mockery of the starting favourites. 

Factors that can affect the Melbourne Cup Betting Markets

1. Early markets: Betting on the Melbourne Cup often starts months in advance, with bookmakers offering ante-post (future) markets. These odds can fluctuate significantly based on performances in lead-up races and overseas form.

2. International influence: In recent years, there's been a growing international presence in the Cup, which has impacted betting patterns. European and Japanese horses often attract significant attention from punters.

3. Favorites' performance: Historically, favorites have a mixed record in the Melbourne Cup. Since 2000, only about 5 favorites have won the race, making it a challenging event for punters.

4. Weight factor: The handicap nature of the race means that betting considerations often include the weight allocated to each horse. Lightly-weighted horses sometimes attract more interest.

5. Lead-up races: Performances in key lead-up races like the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, and Geelong Cup can dramatically shift betting markets.

6. Barrier draw impact: The barrier draw, which happens close to the race, can cause last-minute shifts in odds.

7. Weather considerations: The weather forecast can influence betting, especially if there's a chance of rain affecting the track condition.

8. Tote vs. fixed odds: In Australia, punters can bet via the tote (pari-mutuel) system or with fixed odds bookmakers, offering different betting experiences.

9. Exotic bets: The Melbourne Cup sees a high volume of exotic bets like exactas, trifectas, and first four, which can offer large payouts.

10. Novelty bets: Bookmakers often offer various novelty bets related to the Cup, such as the color of the winning horse or the trainer's nationality.

11. International betting interest: As "the race that stops a nation," the Melbourne Cup attracts significant international betting interest, particularly from countries with runners in the race.

This context can help bettors understand the complexities of betting on the race and as Willie Mullins eyes Melbourne Cup success in the 2024 renewal how do his horses fit into this landscape.

Willie Mullins Eyes Melbourne Cup Success with 3 Strong Contenders

Vauban: 

However the fact that Vauban was the SP favourite for the 2023 race says a lot about his quality. Vauban failed to shine last November, but he has all the attributes to give it another shot, and the experience of having headed Down Under before will suit him well. 

Vauban has won quality races on both the flat (including Royal Ascot) and jumps (including Grade 1s at Cheltenham). He also finished a very credible 4th in the Ascot Gold Cup in 2024. He is the perfect age (7) for a Melbourne Cup winner. Listen to Mullins talk about him; he knows Vauban has a big chance.

Absurde: 

Like Vauban, Absurde ran in the Melbourne Cup last year, finishing 7th out of 23 (well ahead of his stablemate). Obviously, that’s not a bad finish in a large field contesting one of the world’s most prestigious races, but the question is whether Absurde has another gear to go up. He hasn’t been great over 2 miles (the Melbourne Cup distance), besides a big win at Cheltenham on heavy ground.

 He has also been lightly raced of late, so keep an eye out for him as Mullins tests the ground this summer. A couple of big performances in Ireland and he will rocket up the betting markets for the Melbourne Cup in November. 

Belloccio:

Mullins has a big decision to make with Belloccio, a horse that has followed a similar path to Vauban last year. The conundrum is simple: does he send him to Australia for a shot at the biggest prize in the Southern Hemisphere, or does he stick to what he knows best by aiming him at the UK and Ireland jumps season in October?

 Of course, he can do both, but Belloccio is young enough to be a contender for the Melbourne Cup in 2025, too. Mullins knows best, of course, but if he looks to the Melbourne Cup, Belloccio might represent a value ante-post bet. 

Conclusion:

As the Melbourne Cup draws closer, Willie Mullins finds himself in a strong position with three potential contenders. 

Vauban, with his experience from last year and impressive flat racing form, stands out as the leading hope. 

Absurde, looking to improve on last year's 7th place finish, and the promising Belloccio round out a formidable trio for the Irish master trainer. 

Mullins' relentless pursuit of Melbourne Cup glory, combined with his strategic approach and deep understanding of his horses, makes him a force to be reckoned with in the 2024 edition. As the Spring Racing Carnival unfolds, all eyes will be on Mullins' preparations and his horses' performances in lead-up races. 

While the Melbourne Cup remains one of the most unpredictable and competitive races in the world, Mullins seems better positioned than ever to finally claim the coveted trophy that has eluded him for so long. 

Racing fans around the globe will be watching with bated breath to see if this is the year Mullins adds the 'race that stops a nation' to his illustrious list of achievements.

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