Form Ratings Free Strategy Guide

Odds reducing in certain types of race

by Garth
(Redditch uk)

In what types of race for example handicap or non handicap do the odds on 1st favourite and 2nd and 3rd favourite almost always reduce from early morning to just before the off.

Answer: Many factors will influence the movement of prices nearing the start of any race, not least the weight of money (WOM). This is the amount of money being wagered on the favourites.

The best comparison is between Handicaps and Stakes races.

Handicaps favs win 23.9% of the time
Stakes favs win 39.1% of the time

Deciding which favs are likely to be profitable over time is the most important consideration.

Flat stats suggest that backing all Handicaps favs will produce a 9.4% loss

Backing all Stakes favs will produce a 4.7% loss

Also better profit can be made in larger field races

Handicaps favs of 20+ runners result in a 9.8% loss

Stakes favs of 20+ runners result in a 8.6% profit

Other considerations are the state of the going

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